Best Director Preview – 2016 Oscars

Where exactly has Alejandro González Iñárritu come from?

Sure, he was behind a few well received films (21 Grams, Babel and Biutiful), but following Biutiful he didn’t make a full length film for four years and is now a genuine powerhouse.

Iñárritu looks set to win back to back Best Director Oscars, a feat only matched once in history, by Joseph L. Mankiewicz.

Where will this end? Well the streak will probably come to an end with Iñárritu without any upcoming credits on IMDb except for a television series, but his next film will be so highly anticipated that it can’t possibly live up to expectations.

His competition in this award is surprisingly thin and weird. George Miller started the race strongly and his work was excellent but behind him are three first time nominees, one a guy nobody knows, another who is best known for being an actor in The Wire and another who directed Step Brothers.

Who else could have been nominated:

Ridley Scott stands out as a missed nominee from The Martian, Todd Haynes drew a Golden Globe nomination for Carol, while Steven Spielberg directed a well received, Best Picture nominee and couldn’t draw a nomination.

Early pundits would have penciled Quentin Tarantino, because he made a movie and David O. Russell would have been a good early prediction.

There was probably too much going on for JJ Abrams to draw a nomination for The Force Awakens, while Creed‘s Ryan Coogler put up arguably the best sporting direction since Raging Bull.

Who was nominated:

Lenny Abrahamson for Room

Alejandro González Iñárritu for The Revenant

Tom McCarthy for Spotlight

Adam McKay for The Big Short

George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road

The nominees:

Lenny Abrahamson

Why he will win: Abrahamson had the difficult task of making a singular room look interesting for 45 minutes and he did a decent job working the angles. The escape scene in Room was exhilarating for it’s vibrancy, so he should score points for that.
Why he wont win: Nobody really knows who Lenny Abrahamson is. He has a couple of credits to his name, but to win an Oscar without much background a director has to put up something really stunning and that didn’t happen here.

Alejandro González Iñárritu

Why he will win: Iñárritu’s work was the best in this category, and he has won everything including the crucial Directors Guild Award. No director has ever helmed back-to-back Best Picture winners and Iñárritu is on track to do so. The man is a force.
Why he wont win: Could the difficulty of the shoot come into play? A director is supposed to run an efficient and smooth show and Iñárritu certainly didn’t do that on The Revenant.
Only Ang Lee and Spielberg are still consistently working and have multiple Best Director Oscars and Lee is the only member of the 19 multiple winners to win both his awards in the last 20 years. But what his history but an excuse to tear things down?

Tom McCarthy

Why he will win: McCarthy showed impressive restraint in his work on Spotlight and kept an easily confusing film on the straight and narrow.
Why he wont win: This seems like an encouragement nomination, McCarthy was never really in the running here and will have to settle for a probable win for Original Screenplay.

Adam McKay

Why he will win: What a story! McKay throws off the shackles of Will Ferrell and reveals his true form as a sharp, funny but ultimately serious and smart director.
Why he wont win: The visuals were the problem with The Big Short and McKay’s jumpy style was a bit of overkill. Much like McCarthy, this feels like a push for McKay to continue doing good work and he will also to likely pick up the Adapted Screenplay award.

George Miller

Why he will win: Miller hadn’t directed live action since Babe: Pig in the City in 1998 and then came out of nowhere with the most visually enthralling film of the year. The way Miller made Fury Road look dirty, beautiful, ridiculous and sensible all at once was a masterclass. Some early wins and critical adoration had Miller neck and neck with Iñárritu early and he is best placed to pull off an upset.
Why he wont win: While he has picked up the critical awards, Miller has fallen short with the guilds and Iñárritu just has more important wins historically.

Who could win: George Miller
Who should win: Alejandro González Iñárritu
Who will win: Alejandro González Iñárritu