Best Actor Preview – 2016 Oscars

Full disclosure: I am yet to see Trumbo or The Danish Girl, so sections involving those movies will focus on the awards buzz instead of the performances.

Well it’s about time.

While some don’t completely agree he deserves it, it’s time.

Unfollow your favourite topical meme page because Leo is winning a statue.

It may not be his best performance, or really in his best handful, but a combination of factors which is mostly lack of real competition, means Leo will have to make space on his mantle piece.

Who does this leave us as the perennial loser then?

Bradley Cooper has fallen short a couple of times recently, Amy Adams has done enough to become a loser and Joaquin Phoenix has tried, even if he denies he even knows what the Oscars are.

My hope? Brad Pitt makes another run at an actor win and crashes and burns.

Who else could have been nominated:

Will Smith and his wife staged a protest because he wasn’t nominated (and because of the lack of diversity in the nominees, but really), while Al Pacino and Mark Ruffalo were both nominated for comedy/musical Golden Globes but weren’t really in the frame here.

Christian Bale and Steve Carell were both nominated in that above a category as well, but Bale was downgraded to a supporting actor and Carell was campaigned for in that category too.

Tom Hanks made another excellent movie this year and didn’t get a look in, Tom Hardy played two people in one movie and Johnny Depp stays on the outside after his role in Black Mass.

Who was nominated:

Bryan Cranston for playing Dalton Trumbo in Trumbo

Matt Damon for playing Mark Watney in The Martian

Leonardo DiCaprio for playing Hugh Glass in The Revenant

Michael Fassbender for playing Steve Jobs in Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne for playing Lili Elbe/Einar Wegener in The Danish Girl

The nominees:

Bryan Cranston

Why he will win: The dark horse in this race, Cranston is a much loved, award winning figure in Hollywood. He knows how to win over votes and is a hit on the social side of things around the awards season. Could he pull enough votes away out of sheer good will?
Why he wont win: Probably not. DiCaprio likely has a stronger pull of well wishers and Trumbo was a little seen, forgetting movie that hasn’t won anything. Cranston may be everyone’s second choice, but there are no votes for second in this award.

Matt Damon

Why he will win: Damon is the only other nominee to have any serious silverware to show off this season with his Golden Globe win, and DiCaprio aside, he had to carry a film and play off nobody more than anybody else.
Why he wont win: Damon is another contender to take the throne as the win less joke of the Internet, because he isn’t going to win here.

Leonardo DiCaprio

Why he will win: He’s cornered the market in terms of good will and general love from Hollywood this season. DiCaprio is part of a film that is roaring into the final week of the awards season and his performance is at least on par with everyone else.
Why he wont win: Um, maybe people are going to tick the wrong box?

Michael Fassbender

Why he will win: Before the season officially commenced, Fassbender was probably the front runner. He carries Steve Jobs terrifically and is probably the best performance in the category.
Why he wont win: Once awards season began, Steve Jobs took a nosedive in consideration and Fassbender’s chances went with it.

Eddie Redmayne

Why he will win: Redmayne is obviously a recognised award winner and his character certainly makes the biggest transformation of any in this category.
Why he wont win: Only Tom Hanks and Spencer Tracy have won consecutive Best Actor awards and Redmayne doesn’t yet have the accepted brilliance to break into that category. Winning again recently is extremely rare at the Oscars and Redmayne just doesn’t have the power to pull it off.

Who could win: Michael Fassbender
Who should win: Michael Fassbender, Leonardo DiCaprioWho will win: Leonardo DiCaprio

Best Picture Preview – 2016 Oscars

We have an actual three way race this year.

In recent years, a two movie race has given way late to a singular film that has taken over.

Think Boyhood trailing behind Birdman, Avatar falling behind The Hurt Locker or Gravity losing its grip on 12 Years a Slave.

This year, three films have shifted back and forth in the lead over the final stretch of awards and it may all come down to that mystery component so often referred to as momentum.

Other movies have come an gone, most notably Mad Max: Fury Road, but this race is really coming down to three films based on real events.

What else could have been nominated:

Carol is notable in its absence. Unsurprisingly, a film that wasn’t entirely about straight people got shafted by the Academy, with Bridge of Spies most likely knocking it off the list.

It’s worth noting that the rules allows up to ten films (and no less than five) to be nominated if they garner at least 5% of the overall vote for nominations. From there all nominated films are voted on by all voters, until a winner gets 50% of the total vote and films get eliminated until that is reached.

Early buzz surrounded Joy, Straight Outta Compton, Steve Jobs and The Danish Girl, all of which received other nominations but pretty quickly fell out of the big race.

The Force Awakens and Creed couldn’t capture the same awards buzz as their originals, while Cary Joji Fukunaga’s Beasts of No Nation was ignored.

Previous award winners Quentin Tarantino, Terence Malick and Cameron Crowe all released movies featuring their writer-director credits, and at least for two thirds of them they were never considered actual films to be watched or taken seriously.

Who was nominated:

The Big Short – Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner

Bridge of Spies – Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt and Kristie Macosko Krieger

Brooklyn – Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey

Mad Max: Fury Road – Doug Mitchell and George Miller

The Martian – Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer and Mark Huffam

The Revenant – Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent and Keith Redmon

Room – Ed Guiney

Spotlight – Michael Sugar, Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin and Blye Pagon Faust

The nominees:

The Big Short

Why it will win: Wins that have been crucial in past years such as a Writers Guild Award and a Producers Guild Award usually lead to Oscar success – the last seven PGA winners have won Best Picture – and about a month out from the awards, The Big Short was headed for the big prize. The combination of four legitimate Hollywood stars, a real tale of American tragedy that shook the entire world and some good jokes make this a true contender.
Why it wont win: Those wins, however significant, came in the middle of the awards campaign and not the end. The Big Short peaked at the wrong time and may have ran out of gas. While it is an all-encompassing tale, the visual style may not appeal to all voters, which is a crucial part of winning these voters over.

Bridge of Spies

Why it will win: Speilberg! Hanks! Cold war spies!
Why it wont win: This film was the biggest surprise of the nominations and early on realised it was better suited to putting its awards push behind Mark Rylance in the Best Supporting Actor field.

Brooklyn

Why it will win: The Brooklyn synopsis just spews award winning. A lonely heroine comes to America in period costume and realised what a wonderful and perfect nation it really is. That’s not entirely true, but it sure would appeal to a bunch of voters.
Why it wont win: Much like Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn is more focused on getting Saorise Ronan a Best Actress win.

Mad Max: Fury Road

Why it will win: The Fury Road synopsis makes no sense in award winning. Yet, George Miller’s comeback story has won over a lot of good will in Hollywood. Before the awards race hit complete stride it was the front runner thanks to some major critical awards.
Why it wont win: Critics don’t get votes. While Fury Road is a exhilarating adventure thanks to masterful execution, it doesn’t have the wide appeal to rack in enough votes within all the members.

The Martian

Why it will win: Better than perhaps any other film in this category, The Martian manages to draw together an ensemble cast and create its own world. It cleaned up the comedy/musical section of the Golden Globes, so that’s something.
Why it wont win: But that’s also nothing important. In this century, only Chicago and The Artist have won the Oscar after winning best comedy/musical at the Golden Globes and Birdman didn’t even win that award last year. Listing that it was nominated for Best Picture should help DVD and streaming sales, that’s probably about it for The Martian.

The Revenant

Why it will win: The Revenant has turned down the stretch towards victory with a full head of steam. After taking home the gong in the drama section of the Golden Globes, things went quiet for the gritty survival tale, but down the stretch wins in the Directors Guild Association and the BAFTAs has pushed The Revenant towards the top. More than the other two contenders, The Revenant hits the final day of the season at full speed, making it the favourite.
Why it wont win: Since The Sound of Music warbled its way to the top award, only Titanic has won Best Picture without garnering a nomination in either screenplay category. It makes sense there was no nomination because Leo just drags himself around grunting for a good 90 minutes, but that also speaks to the lack of prestige involved in the project.

Room

Why it will win: Brie Larson is going to win, so that might help, I guess.
Why it wont win: Because it’s a perfectly average film and it hasn’t won anything. Room is making up the numbers.

Spotlight

Why it will win: Spotlight took home a Writers Guild win and the all-important Screen Actors Guild award for best ensemble, historically a good indicator for this award. With the SAG win, Spotlight found itself in the lead in this category and the film topic is a harrowing one that hits home for a lot of people around the world. It’s still right in the hunt and may have just been overtaken by The Revenant, but it might be the best film in this category.
Why it wont win: Like The Big Short, Spotlight doesn’t enter the pointy end of the season with momentum. Without a known director, the studio has had to do a lot of the legwork in making Spotlight visible and may have struggled to maintain the rage.

Who could win: The Big Short, Spotlight
Who should win: Spotlight
Who will win: The Revenant

Best Director Preview – 2016 Oscars

Where exactly has Alejandro González Iñárritu come from?

Sure, he was behind a few well received films (21 Grams, Babel and Biutiful), but following Biutiful he didn’t make a full length film for four years and is now a genuine powerhouse.

Iñárritu looks set to win back to back Best Director Oscars, a feat only matched once in history, by Joseph L. Mankiewicz.

Where will this end? Well the streak will probably come to an end with Iñárritu without any upcoming credits on IMDb except for a television series, but his next film will be so highly anticipated that it can’t possibly live up to expectations.

His competition in this award is surprisingly thin and weird. George Miller started the race strongly and his work was excellent but behind him are three first time nominees, one a guy nobody knows, another who is best known for being an actor in The Wire and another who directed Step Brothers.

Who else could have been nominated:

Ridley Scott stands out as a missed nominee from The Martian, Todd Haynes drew a Golden Globe nomination for Carol, while Steven Spielberg directed a well received, Best Picture nominee and couldn’t draw a nomination.

Early pundits would have penciled Quentin Tarantino, because he made a movie and David O. Russell would have been a good early prediction.

There was probably too much going on for JJ Abrams to draw a nomination for The Force Awakens, while Creed‘s Ryan Coogler put up arguably the best sporting direction since Raging Bull.

Who was nominated:

Lenny Abrahamson for Room

Alejandro González Iñárritu for The Revenant

Tom McCarthy for Spotlight

Adam McKay for The Big Short

George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road

The nominees:

Lenny Abrahamson

Why he will win: Abrahamson had the difficult task of making a singular room look interesting for 45 minutes and he did a decent job working the angles. The escape scene in Room was exhilarating for it’s vibrancy, so he should score points for that.
Why he wont win: Nobody really knows who Lenny Abrahamson is. He has a couple of credits to his name, but to win an Oscar without much background a director has to put up something really stunning and that didn’t happen here.

Alejandro González Iñárritu

Why he will win: Iñárritu’s work was the best in this category, and he has won everything including the crucial Directors Guild Award. No director has ever helmed back-to-back Best Picture winners and Iñárritu is on track to do so. The man is a force.
Why he wont win: Could the difficulty of the shoot come into play? A director is supposed to run an efficient and smooth show and Iñárritu certainly didn’t do that on The Revenant.
Only Ang Lee and Spielberg are still consistently working and have multiple Best Director Oscars and Lee is the only member of the 19 multiple winners to win both his awards in the last 20 years. But what his history but an excuse to tear things down?

Tom McCarthy

Why he will win: McCarthy showed impressive restraint in his work on Spotlight and kept an easily confusing film on the straight and narrow.
Why he wont win: This seems like an encouragement nomination, McCarthy was never really in the running here and will have to settle for a probable win for Original Screenplay.

Adam McKay

Why he will win: What a story! McKay throws off the shackles of Will Ferrell and reveals his true form as a sharp, funny but ultimately serious and smart director.
Why he wont win: The visuals were the problem with The Big Short and McKay’s jumpy style was a bit of overkill. Much like McCarthy, this feels like a push for McKay to continue doing good work and he will also to likely pick up the Adapted Screenplay award.

George Miller

Why he will win: Miller hadn’t directed live action since Babe: Pig in the City in 1998 and then came out of nowhere with the most visually enthralling film of the year. The way Miller made Fury Road look dirty, beautiful, ridiculous and sensible all at once was a masterclass. Some early wins and critical adoration had Miller neck and neck with Iñárritu early and he is best placed to pull off an upset.
Why he wont win: While he has picked up the critical awards, Miller has fallen short with the guilds and Iñárritu just has more important wins historically.

Who could win: George Miller
Who should win: Alejandro González Iñárritu
Who will win: Alejandro González Iñárritu

 

Supporting Actor Preview – 2016 Oscars

A weirdo, a villain, a journalist, a spy and a has-been, the supporting actor category this year reads like some kind of bizarro Breakfast Club.

Like a disruptive Judd Nelson, it’s the has-been who has been getting all the attention.

Sylvester Stallone has been sweeping the awards circuit for his worn in role as the Rocky Balboa your dad always feared he would become.

Stallone’s only real competition here is Mark Rylance, a man who’s IMDb reads like a who’s who of movies you’ve never seen.

Can an unknown spy topple a creaky has-been?

Who could have been nominated?

The elephant in the room is Idris Elba, who through a combination of his film being a Netlflix joint and him not being white, missed out.

Others missing from the Golden Globe shortlist are Michael Shannon for 99 Homes and Paul Dano for Love & Mercy, but they were barely seen, forgotten films.

Steve Carrell (The Big Short), Michael Keaton (Spotlight), Chiwitel Ejiofor (The Martian) and Robert De Niro (Joy) all got lost in the wash during campaigns for their films.

Oscar Isaac continued his excellent form in Ex Machina, Christoph Waltz couldn’t bring is Tarantino magic to Spectre, while there were some rumblings around Harrison Ford for his performance in The Force Awakens, and but there was only room for one mediocre old-man performance in this category.

Who is nominated?

Christian Bale as Michael Burry in The Big Short

Tom Hardy as John Fitzgerald in The Revenant

Mark Ruffalo as Michael Rezendes in Spotlight

Mark Rylance as Rudolf Abel in Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone as Rocky Balboa in Creed

The nominees:

Christian Bale

Why he will win: It takes a strong performance to stand out among a cast of Steve Carrell, Brad Pitt and Ryan Gosling and Bale’s weirdness created a character who was definitely memorable. He’s won this category before, so Bale knows how to rack up votes.
Why he wont win: Bale hasn’t won anything for his performance and The Big Short is firmly focused on getting over the line in the Best Picture category. Also, while he may have stood out against the big names, he actually wasn’t as good as Gosling.

Tom Hardy

Why he will win: Everybody admires Hardy for his commitment to roles and his brilliant ability to pull off difficult assignments. And he out-shone than Leonardo Fucking DiCaprio in Leo’s own movie.
Why he wont win: He also had to put on a weird accent and mumble a lot. Hardy doesn’t seem to care about this kind of stuff and puts on a too-cool for the industry persona that isn’t going to endear him to voters.

Mark Ruffalo

Why he will win: The best performance in a film that won the SAG for outstanding ensemble has to earn you something. Ruffalo has been kicking around doing great work for a long time now and is due some recognition.
Why he wont win: Much like Bale, Ruffalo hasn’t won anything and nobody is really concerned about his chances anyway. Back to back nominations is nothing to sniff at and Ruffalo will take a trophy eventually.

Mark Rylance

Why he will win: Rylance is a great combination. An adored stage performer who has taken mostly anonymous roles in films until now, and he is set to explode as his next two movies are with Steven Spielberg and Christopher Nolan. Rylance’s layered performance is the best in this category and he brings a great calmness to a film that is always striving for chaos. This is the role that deserves a statue.
Why he wont win: There is just so much love for Stallone that Rylance could be drowned out. Both Bridge of Spies and Creed are solely focused on this award and Creed might just have a harder punch behind it.

Sylvester Stallone

Why he will win: That up swell of positivity when Stallone won the Golden Globe set a tone that continued through the awards season for Stallone. He hits the right notes in Creed and everyone is going to love him remembering to thank some coloured people on stage, he looks like the winner here.
Why he wont win: I don’t think anybody saw Creed and gasped into saying, “give Stallone an Oscar!”. He was fine but there was nothing amazing about his performance and with actors making up the biggest contingent of the academy, Rylance could get a boost from people who know what they are looking for. But, legacy speaks.

Who could win: Mark Rylance
Who should win: Mark Rylance
Who will win: Sylvester Stallone

Spotlight – Review

“Knowledge is one thing but faith, faith is another.”

There is nothing extraordinary about Spotlight, yet there is something incredible in the way it falls into place.

This is a movie that is clearly much more than the sum of its parts.

Said parts and exactly bad, the acting is solidly great all-round, the direction is good and the writing is excellent, but together it makes for an engrossing, tense film.

Centered around the investigation made by the Spotlight team at the Boston Globe into the cover up of children molestation within the Catholic Church, Spotlight builds and builds.

The team, Mike Rezendes (Mark Ruffalo), Sacha Pfeiffer (Rachel McAdams), Matt Carrol (Brian d’Arcy James) and their editor/team leader ‘Robby’ Robinson (Michael Keaton) are put onto the case by new paper editor Marty Baron (Liev Schreiber).

It’s slow moving plot, but like a good puzzle, the pieces begin to fall together as more evidence is collected and more sources are revealed.

Two lawyers, Mitchell Garabedian (Stanley Tucci) and Eric Macleish (Billy Crudup) provide intermittent help, but it’s when the victims speak that Spotlight really begins to move.

Three in particular, Joe Crowley (Michael Cyril Creighton), Patrick McSorely (Jimmy LeBlanc) and Phil Saviano (Neal Huff) for the reporters and the movie into gear and from their interviews, Spotlight begins it’s battle to convey the truth.

Each new revelation brings with it anger and confusion and the script from Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer does a great job of providing enough difficulty to keep the investigation difficult and keeping each reveal different and not letting them slip into a list of facts.

Spotlight gathers a string of chill-inducing moments and lines them up into a terrific, memorable film.

There is nothing flashy here, just a painstaking retelling of a harrowing story and how it was written.

What’s with the categories? Find out here.

Direction/cinematography

McCarthy, who was best known to me as the slimy reporter from the final season of The Wire, doesn’t do anything spectacular behind the camera here.

He adopts a fly on the wall style during scenes within the Boston Globe offices, but during outside scenes McCarthy works hard to employ wide lenses to pick up the Boston scenery.

This is particularly notable during one particular montage as reporters knock on doors, with Boston’s intimidating cathedrals looming in the background.

This speaks of some hard from from Masanobu Takayanagi as the cinematographer, scouting some crucial locations to make ensure this is a story about Boston and its deep connection to the church.

1.5/2

Writing

Movies about newspaper reporting have to be well written to have any credibility and Spotlight is excellent in this regard.

Seemingly every scene includes a memorable line: “How do you say no to God, right?”; “If it takes a village to raise a child, it takes a village to abuse one.”; “It’s like everybody knows the story…” “Yeah, except us.”.

The pacing invokes David Fincher’s great Zodiac in it’s unraveling, slow burning style.

There are enough sprinklings of humour to keep it from drawing yawns, with Keaton’s Robinson adding wit often to a dire scenario.

One scene where Rezendes explodes in rage seems like an unnecessary addition, and an extra dive into the villains of the story would have been nice, but this script is truly excellent.

2/2

Acting

Ruffalo stands out as Rezendes, bringing a specific physicality to his role that helps create his character.

The real people depicted in the film were around set often, and their opinions of the portrayals have been almost universally positive, in particular Keaton’s father figure as Robinson.

Tucci is excellent as a dismissive lawyer who has been put through the ringer of constant victims without justice and Len Cariou does a great job as the cardinal who is at all times both threatening and warm.

Spotlight took out the SAG Award for best ensemble and that was due to an even and terrific portrayal.

2/2

Re-watchability

The subject matter isn’t all the fun, but the sprinklings of key moments means Spotlight is worth revisiting.

It’s one of those movies that ends with goosebumps and it takes a couple of minutes for you to stand up and go to the toilet because there is so much to process.

Some sections may be worth fast forwarding through, notably a 9/11 hold off, but Spotlight is worth taking in multiple times.

1.6/2

Zeitgeist

Spotlight immediately joins Frost/Nixon, Zodiac, Good Night and Good Luck and Anchorman as the top films about journalism in this century.

For that, it earns a place in the realms of popular culture.

It is also among the front runners for Best Picture at the Oscars at the time of writing and a win there will obviously catapult it from a lesser seen film to a must watch.

But it is a lesser seen film without any legitimate movie superstars in front or behind the camera, so without a win it could quickly be forgotten by the masses.

1.4/2

Spotlight – 8.6 out of 10

88th Academy Awards Preview

It’s not long now until February 28, when Chris Rock will step out of the champagne room and onto the stage to commence another bloated night of the Oscars.

As with last year, I’ll be putting together a preview of the key awards including predictions so you can claim you know who will win each award before being made to look like a fool when Robert De Niro calls Bryan Cranston to the stage.

Here are the categories, reviews for films are in hyperlinks:
* – projected winner

Best Picture – Preview

The Big Short – Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner
Bridge of Spies – Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt and Kristie Macosko Krieger
Brooklyn – Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey
Mad Max: Fury Road – Doug Mitchell and George Miller
The Martian – Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer and Mark Huffam
The Revenant* – Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent and Keith Redmon
Room – Ed Guiney
Spotlight – Michael Sugar, Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin and Blye Pagon Faust

Best Director – Preview

Lenny Abrahamson – Room
Alejandro G. Iñárritu* – The Revenant
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
Adam McKay – The Big Short
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Actor – Preview

Bryan Cranston as Dalton Trumbo in Trumbo
Matt Damon as Mark Watney in The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio* as Hugh Glass in The Revenant
Michael Fassbender as Steve Jobs in Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne as Lili Elbe/Einar Wegener in The Danish Girl

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett as Carol Aird in Carol
Brie Larson* as Joy ‘Ma’ Newsome in Room
Jennifer Lawrence as Joy Mangano in Joy
Charlotte Rampling as Kate Mercer in 45 Years
Saoirise Ronan as Ellis Lacey in Brooklyn

Best Supporting Actor – Preview

Christian Bale as Michael Burry in The Big Short
Tom Hardy as John Fitzgerald in The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo as Michael Rezendes in Spotlight
Mark Rylance as Rudolf Abel in Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone* as Rocky Balboa in Creed

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh as Daisy Domergue in The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara as Therese Belivet in Carol
Rachel McAdams as Sascha Pfeiffer in Spotlight
Alicia Vikander* as Gerda Wegener in The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet as Joanna Hoffman in Steve Jobs

Best Original Screenplay – Preview

Bridge of Spies – written by Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen
Ex Machina – written by Alex Garland
Inside Out – screenplay by Pete Doctor, Meg LaFauve & Josh Cooley; original story by Pete Doctor & Ronnie del Carmen
Spotlight* – written by Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy
Straight Outta Compton – screenplay by Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff; story by S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus and Andrea Berloff

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short* – screenplay by Adam McKay and Charles Randolph taken from The Big Short by Michael Lewis
Brooklyn – screenplay by Nick Hornby taken from Brooklyn by Col Tóibín
Carol – screenplay by Phyllis Nagy taken from The Price of Salt by Patricia Highsmith
The Martian – screenplay by Drew Goddard taken from The Martian by Andy Weir
Room – screenplay by Emma Donoghue taken from Room by Emma Donoghue

Check out:

Review: Star Wars: The Force Awakens (five nominations)
87th Academy Awards Preview
86th Academy Awards Preview

Best Actress preview – 2015 Oscars

Moore please

The real story in this category is not who will win (it’s Julianne Moore), but the lack star power in these films. As of the time of writing and according to BoxOfficeMojo.com, these are the grosses for the films (rounded to nearest thousand, all in US Dollars and current as of Feb. 22nd):
Gone Girl: $368,057,000
Still Alice: 6,485,000
The Theory of Everything: $98,679,000
Two Days, One Night: $6,584,000
Wild: $45,258,000.
That is an average of $105,012,600, $43,261,400 less than the Best Actor category average. Consider that only Gone Girl and The Theory of Everything (which is also a Best Actor nominee film) have grossed more than $70million, while only Foxcatcher has fallen short of that on the other side of the fence. Does this indicate that the studios need to advertise and show their female-led films more? Absolutely. Does this mean that the audience is more interested in seeing a male-led film? Possibly. Perhaps it is neither, and it is just that the films in this category are weaker than the other. Perhaps it is the biopic. Of the Best Actor films, four of them were based on real people. Only The Theory of Everything (again, shared with Best Actor) and Wild are based on real people. Perhaps it is the lack of shared films? Last year, three out of five films in this category were nominated for Best Picture. The Theory of Everything again is alone in that regard this year. For some reason, the films in this category seems almost forgotten already. Gone Girl made a huge splash, Still Alice will forever be remembered as that movie Julianne Moore won an Oscar for and The Theory of Everything for Eddie Redmayne’s possible win. The other two may just fade away, particularly Two Days, One Night, which never really appeared off European shores. It doesn’t feel the same about the Best Actor race.
Anyway, somebody is going to win this award (again, it will be Moore), so let’s discuss that.
Full disclosure: I have let you down horribly. I haven’t seen Still Alice, Two Days, One Night or Wild. I apologise, you shouldn’t have trusted me. Those films will be treated for their awards racing, not for the performances. I’m sorry.

Who else could have been nominated

Jennifer Aniston seemed like a sure bet right up until the nominations were announced. Marion Cotillard came from nowhere really to swoop in and replace her. Hilary Swank couldn’t build up enough momentum for her performance in The Homesman, Emily Blunt seemed content with a Golden Globe nomination for Into The Woods and Amy Adams missed out despite her strong reputation and performance in Big Eyes.

Who was nominated

Marion Cotillard – as Sandra Bya in Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones – as Jane Hawking in The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore – as Dr. Alice Howland in Still Alice
Rosamund Pike – as Amy Elliot-Dunne in Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon – as Cheryl Strayed in Wild

Marion Cotillard

Why she will win: Cotillard is an incredibly actress who has barely put a foot wrong on screen. She’s won this award before, showing the Academy thinks fondly of her.
Why she wont win: Two Days, One Night has a domestic US box office of about $1.5 million, it hasn’t been seen by many, and the promotional DVDs probably found themselves at the bottom of the pile. Cotillard snuck in to this category surprisingly and she isn’t really a contender.

Felicity Jones

Why she will win: The Theory of Everything is the only film in this category nominated for a major award, meaning it will be larger in the mind of voters than others in this category. Jones put in a solid performance in the film, playing an annoyed, brooding wife just well enough that she didn’t leave the audience annoyed and brooding.
Why she wont win: Jones is more of a supporting performance than a lead in her movie. That hasn’t always hurt in major categories, but it might hurt her here. The Theory of Everything has funneled all its resources into Redmayne’s race, leaving Jones a little out in the cold.

Julianne Moore

Why she will win: Ding, ding, ding! Moore is a greatly respected actress who has served above and beyond for two decades. She’s been nominated for five Oscars, and this year everything had fallen into place for her to win it, plus from all reports she does a mighty fine job in front of the screen.
Why she wont win: Neil Patrick Harris offends George Clooney in the wrong way, and Clooney calls off the ceremony citing his powers as overlord of the universe. That’s the only reason why she wont win.

Rosamund Pike

Why she will win: It’s hard to remember a performance from any actor that has shaped their identity like Pike’s in Gone Girl. Before Gone Girl, Pike was a journeywoman actress best known for being the fourth (behind Halle Berry, Judi Dench and Madonna) most memorable actress in Die Another Day. Now she is Amy Elliot-Dunne. Conniving, loving, cold, hot, beautiful, deadly Amy Elliot-Dunne. Pike controlled Gone Girl in a way that it is impossible to imagine anybody else in the role.
Why she wont win: The Academy didn’t reward Gone Girl as much as many expected. It failed to register in Best Directing and Best Adapted Screenplay and the Academy has a record for passing over thrillers.

Reese Witherspoon

Why she will win: Witherspoon put herself back on track with a strong 2014. After the whole police drama thing, Witherspoon produced Gone Girl and starred in Wild, putting her back up near the top of American sweethearts.
Why she wont win: That story is nice, and her performance in Wild is nice too (apparently, I’m still sorry) but Moore has her fingerprints on the statue already.

Who could win: Rosamund Pike
Who will win: Julianne Moore

For more coverage of the 87th Academy Awards, click here.

Best Supporting Actress preview – 2015 Oscars

Mum’s the word

Patricia Arquette already has a spot perfectly set out on her mantlepiece. She’s gone to the trouble of having a special glass case built, it’s 15 inches tall so it can fit the little golden man in snugly. On the glass case is a little placque reading “Best Supporting Actress, 2015”. Yeah, she’s winning this award.
Full disclosure: Unfortunately I haven’t seen either Laura Dern’s performance in Wild or Maryl Streep’s in Into The Woods. Therefore, their sections will cover their roles in the awards race. I apologise.

Who else could have been nominated

There are a couple of notable missing nominees. Jessica Chastain drew her standard plaudits for her role in A Most Violent Year, which was frozen out by the Academy, and Rene Russo put in a career sparking performance in Nightcrawler without a nomination. Vanessa Redgrave of Foxcatcher would have been close to busting into this category had she been given a couple more scenes, while Carmen Ejogo could say the same from Selma. Carrie Coon provided a much needed heart in Gone Girl, but she is a left field pick.

Who was nominated

Patricia Arquette – as Olivia Evans in Boyhood
Laura Dern – as Barbara “Bobbi” Grey in Wild
Keira Knightley – as Joan Clarke in The Imitation Game
Emma Stone – as Sam Thompson in Birdman
Meryl Streep – as The Witch in Into The Woods

Patricia Arquette

Why she will win: This is as close to a lock as there could be. She ticks almost every box: her character ages on screen showing a certain sacrifice from Arquette, she breaks down during middle age as half the Academy is sure to have experienced, and she has the most memorable performance in a Best Picture caliber film. She’s won 32 separate awards for her role in Boyhood, some of them shared, most of them not. She’s building an entire trophy case for this film, but the Oscar is going on the mantlepiece.
Why she wont win: Um, she’s won so many awards the voters are sick of her? I don’t know, I’m grasping at straws here.

Laura Dern

Why she will win: Dern gained a surprise nomination for this category. She doesn’t have much screen time, and it was thought her role could be passed over. It wasn’t, so she gets a free feed, alcohol and an entertaining evening as a reward. Good for you, Laura Dern.
Why she wont win: She was a surprise nominee in a field that is basically already decided. She’s not going to get close.

Keira Knightley

Why she will win: Knightley is a respected actress who has been nominated before (and should have been nominated for A Dangerous Mind! Please!), so she has the attention of the Academy. She balances controlling aggression and naivety in The Imitation Game quite well.
Why she wont win: This isn’t the career defining role Knightley needed to capture the attention of the Academy. She’s good in The Imitation Game, but she doesn’t really push her steriotypical boundaries as a polite English actress. Plus, her last name isn’t Arquette.

Emma Stone

Why she will win: A competitor! Stone is the legitimate dark horse in this category; if anybody is going to take this award away from Arquette it is her. Stone gets a great scene alongside Michael Keaton in Birdman, one that allows her to show off her various talents, and stays sharp for the rest of the film. Also, supporting categories often reward journey actors or rising youngsters. Stone is a rising youngster, and some voter fatigue for Arquette could help her along.
Why she wont win: Remember how I said supporting categories reward journey actors? Well, Stone’s rival is one of those. Stone has plenty of time to build on her considerable acting chops and return to the Oscars.

Meryl Streep

Why she will win: If there is one certainty in life (other than death, taxes and idiots) it’s that you should never doubt Meryl Streep. She’ll make a fool of you. If she wanted to, she could dress up like Arquette and take the statue and nobody would know. Streep showed off her singing voice for Into The Woods, just to prove she is more talented than us in every way, and has enough respect to garner some votes.
Why she wont win: Streep has that many nominations (19!) that this one doesn’t really matter, it’s just normal to see her on the ballot. Streep wont win this year, but don’t doubt she will come back for sweet, bloody revenge soon.

If you have read any of this, you know where this is going.

Who should win: Patricia Arquette
Who could win: Emma Stone
Who will win: Patricia Arquette

For more on the 87th Academy Awards, click here.

Best Adapted Screenplay preview – 2015 Oscars

To push people beyond expectation

A few of these previews have been for dead races. Best Supporting Actor and Actress are awards that were decided long ago. However, in this category I’m really unsure who is going to win. Damien Chazelle‘s Whiplash and Graham Moore‘s The Imitation Game are the front runners, but there are arguments to be made for any of the other nominees. Why Chazelle is in this category is a little confusing, his ‘adapted’ screenplay is ‘adapted’ from his own short film of the same name, which was actually adapted from his full length screenplay. Confusing yes, an adapted screenplay? Hardly. As mentioned in Best Original Screenplay, Foxcatcher is far more adapted than Whiplash, but you aren’t here for a rant about the rules of the category, you’re here to find out who is going to win.
Full disclosure: I never got around to seeing Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice. My apologies. What is written about Anderson will be reflecting the awards race and not the actual screenplay.

Who else could have been nominated

Aside from E. Max Frey and Dan Futterman for Foxcatcher, the biggest missing nominee is Gillian Flynn for Gone Girl. She picked up a Golden Globe nomination for best screenplay, a category that takes in every possible screenplay, but couldn’t break into this category. Perhaps adapting her own book hurt her? Or maybe it was because she is a woman? Either way she isn’t here. Neither is Nick Hornby for Wild, or the crazy collection of Ethan and Joel Coen, Richard LaGravenese and William Nicholson for Unbroken or James Gunn and Nicole Perlman for adapting the difficult Guardians of the Galaxy.

Who was nominated

Paul Thomas Anderson – Inherent Vice (from Inherent Vice by Thomas Pynchon)
Damien Chazelle – Whiplash (from the short film Whiplash by Damien Chazelle)
Jason Hall – American Sniper (adapted from American Sniper by Chris Kyle, Scott McEwen and Jim DeFelice)
Anthony McCarten – The Theory of Everything (from Traveling to Infinity: My Life with Stephen by Jane Wilde Hawking)
Graham Moore – The Imitation Game (from Alan Turing: The Enigma by Andrew Hodges)

Paul Thomas Anderson

Why he will win: Anderson is a favourite of many in the industry (and outside it) and that almost certainly helped him get a nomination. Inherent Vice didn’t gain any traction anywhere else though.
Why he wont win: See above, Inherent Vice was virtually ignored during the awards season. This feels like a congratulatory nomination rather than a serious contender.

Damien Chazelle

Why he will win: Whiplash came with a rush and gained a massive amount of plaudits at the right time. It’s with good reason, Chazelle makes a tedious sounding competition between jazz musicians into a riveting struggle for strength in a volatile relationship. The push inside the Academy for a bunch of nominations will help Chazelle, and he will probably pick up a lot of votes from younger or indie demographics in the Academy. Chazelle also directed his film – Anderson is the only other to do that in this field – which adds credibility to his cause.
Why he wont win: Whiplash was Chazelle’s first film to make any kind of credible splash with critics, so compared to Moore’s struggle trying to get his script to film he doesn’t have a great narrative. That could hurt, and stuffier Academy traditionalists may bypass Whiplash.

Jason Hall

Why he will win: American Sniper came with a great rush at the end of the season, and all those surprise nominations have to count for something. Probably not this though.
Why he wont win: Look, any scene with meaningful dialogue in this move was fairly rubbish. I’m not sure how Hall got a nomination, but I’m also not sure how American Sniper got any nominations. It’s an action movie with after-thought slow scenes.

Anthony McCarten

Why he will win: Eddie Redmayne’s momentum in the Best Actor category has probably shed more light on The Theory of Everything and could lead to an influx of votes in other categories. McCarten had to keep a bunch of characters interesting in what would otherwise have been a plodding film, and he did a good job of that.
Why he wont win: In this category at least, The Theory of Everything gets overshadowed by the other British biopic in The Imitation Game. The Theory of Everything will probably be rewarded with a statue in a different category, so voters may choose to bump it down in this one.

Graham Moore

Why he will win: This was a passion project for Moore, who struggled to get his idea to screen for a very long time. The Imitation Game landed on The Black List, a list of the best screenplays that aren’t films and many in the Academy will have known what it is like to struggle to get their project to screen. Moore’s screenplay is also quite good. He manages to balance multiple timelines while painting a character who is both a hero and a complete asshole.
Why he wont win: There have been attacks on the historical truth of The Imitation Game and it didn’t walk away with the BAFTA, instead losing to The Theory of Everything. That hurts, and Moore may suffer as a result.

This is a coin flip of a category. Moore and Chazelle both have compelling cases, but Chazelle will take the gong due to the wave of enthusiasm behind Whiplash.

Who should win: Damien Chazelle
Who could win: Graham Moore
Who will win: Damien Chazelle

For more coverage of the 87th Academy Awards, click here.

Best Supporting Actor preview – 2015 Oscars

Rushing, not dragging

Since day one, this race has belonged to J.K. Simmons. A career supporting player, at the age of 67 Simmons stumbled onto his IMDb page-leading role in Whiplash. This category isn’t completely dead though, there are some other brilliant performances in here, in particular in the Best Picture dueling movies. But, sorry, no matter what you read below, Simmons is going to run away with this award.
The direction of this award is a different argument. Though Simmons was excellent, he was practically a co-lead. I wouldn’t have been remotely shocked if he was nominated as Best Actor. In that category, Steve Carrell is nominated, though he isn’t the lead role in his film. This doesn’t mean Simmons shouldn’t win, he put in the best performance in this group, but his isn’t a traditional, all-guns loaded supporting role. If the supporting awards are heading towards co-leads, it would be another question mark on an already worrisome awards ceremony. That doesn’t mean I wont be spending all my spare time writing about it though.
Full disclosure: unfortunately I didn’t get around to seeing The Judge. So Robert Duvall’s chances will be purely based on the race not his performance. My apologies.

Who else could have been nominated

Tyler Perry us the showiest omission. He played a true supporting role in Gone Girl, coming in to steal every scene brilliantly. Robert Duvall appears to be the dead weight in this category (again, I apologise for that italic section above) and Perry could have slotted in here. Another co-lead supporter was the basically unknown Tony Revolori from The Grand Budapest Hotel. His controlled, smart performance was terrific. Nightcrawler‘s Riz Ahmed was probably the best sidekick of the season, while (spoiler) Matt Damon was one scene short of a lasting impression in Interstellar and Tim Roth and Tom Wilkinson were hurt by the facts that hurt Selma‘s race, Wilkinson in particular. Channing Tatum could have broken into here if Carrell was the lead role, but Mark Ruffalo got the nod.

Who was nominated

Robert Duvall as Judge Joseph Palmer in The Judge
Ethan Hawke as Mason Evans Sr. in Boyhood
Edward Norton as Mike Shiner in Birdman
Mark Ruffalo as Dave Shultz in Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons as Terence Fletcher in Whiplash

Robert Duvall

Why he will win: At 84 years old, Duvall is the oldest male ever nominated for an acting award. It’s his seventh nomination, the first came in this category 42 years ago for The Godfather. These facts don’t really mean much, but it’s nice publicity for Duvall.
Why he wont win: The Judge isn’t The Godfather (breaking news there) and Judge Joseph Palmer isn’t Tom Hagen. He didn’t win 42 years ago, Duvall isn’t winning now.

Ethan Hawke

Why he will win: Hawke has been awarded four times by the Academy, twice in this category and twice for writing. Hawke was electric in Boyhood, while Patricia Arquette got the emotional scenes, Hawke got the role that kept the film moving. He got the best comedy moments and was a breath of fresh air throughout the film.
Why he wont win: Hawke, along with Norton has found himself in this category in the wrong year. While his performance was great, he hasn’t won anything and Boyhood has funneled all its campaigning behind Arquette, Richard Linklater and getting the Best Picture.

Edward Norton

Why he will win: Norton missed his chance to win a statue at the turn of the millenium (seriously, American History X, he was robbed), so maybe the Academy will reward him for his losses. Much like Hawke, Norton got a great role, and he nailed it. Norton is the second place getter, maybe voters have tired of Simmons winning every award in this category? It’s not likely, but it’s possible.
Why he wont win: Like Hawke, Norton picked the wrong year. He was great – he usually is – but, as you’ve gathered so far, he isn’t going to win. Again like Hawke, Norton’s film hasn’t been campaigning for him.

Mark Ruffalo

Why he will win: This category is genuinely stacked with gifted performers, and Ruffalo is one of them. He brought a subtle calmness to his role in Foxcatcher, matching his character as the grounded member of the trifecta.
Why he wont win: I’m running out of reasons to say actors wont win. Just scroll down to J.K. Simmons.

J.K. Simmons

Why he will win: Finally! Simmons has been the frontrunner for this award since he threw that chair at Miles Teller. He’s won everything he possibly could, and he deserved it. Simmons basically owns the movie. His rage is perfectly paced and it appears that Simmons has been waiting a long time just for this role. It’s a great performance.
Why he wont win: Not quite my tempo. The only reason Simmons shouldn’t win is if he accepts his award, makes his speech, hears the music rolling to call him off and closes his fist towards the orchestra.

Who should win: J.K. Simmons
Who could win: Edward Norton
Who will win: J.K. Simmons

For more coverage of the 87th Academy Awards, click here.