Best Picture Preview – 2016 Oscars

We have an actual three way race this year.

In recent years, a two movie race has given way late to a singular film that has taken over.

Think Boyhood trailing behind Birdman, Avatar falling behind The Hurt Locker or Gravity losing its grip on 12 Years a Slave.

This year, three films have shifted back and forth in the lead over the final stretch of awards and it may all come down to that mystery component so often referred to as momentum.

Other movies have come an gone, most notably Mad Max: Fury Road, but this race is really coming down to three films based on real events.

What else could have been nominated:

Carol is notable in its absence. Unsurprisingly, a film that wasn’t entirely about straight people got shafted by the Academy, with Bridge of Spies most likely knocking it off the list.

It’s worth noting that the rules allows up to ten films (and no less than five) to be nominated if they garner at least 5% of the overall vote for nominations. From there all nominated films are voted on by all voters, until a winner gets 50% of the total vote and films get eliminated until that is reached.

Early buzz surrounded Joy, Straight Outta Compton, Steve Jobs and The Danish Girl, all of which received other nominations but pretty quickly fell out of the big race.

The Force Awakens and Creed couldn’t capture the same awards buzz as their originals, while Cary Joji Fukunaga’s Beasts of No Nation was ignored.

Previous award winners Quentin Tarantino, Terence Malick and Cameron Crowe all released movies featuring their writer-director credits, and at least for two thirds of them they were never considered actual films to be watched or taken seriously.

Who was nominated:

The Big Short – Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner

Bridge of Spies – Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt and Kristie Macosko Krieger

Brooklyn – Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey

Mad Max: Fury Road – Doug Mitchell and George Miller

The Martian – Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer and Mark Huffam

The Revenant – Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent and Keith Redmon

Room – Ed Guiney

Spotlight – Michael Sugar, Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin and Blye Pagon Faust

The nominees:

The Big Short

Why it will win: Wins that have been crucial in past years such as a Writers Guild Award and a Producers Guild Award usually lead to Oscar success – the last seven PGA winners have won Best Picture – and about a month out from the awards, The Big Short was headed for the big prize. The combination of four legitimate Hollywood stars, a real tale of American tragedy that shook the entire world and some good jokes make this a true contender.
Why it wont win: Those wins, however significant, came in the middle of the awards campaign and not the end. The Big Short peaked at the wrong time and may have ran out of gas. While it is an all-encompassing tale, the visual style may not appeal to all voters, which is a crucial part of winning these voters over.

Bridge of Spies

Why it will win: Speilberg! Hanks! Cold war spies!
Why it wont win: This film was the biggest surprise of the nominations and early on realised it was better suited to putting its awards push behind Mark Rylance in the Best Supporting Actor field.

Brooklyn

Why it will win: The Brooklyn synopsis just spews award winning. A lonely heroine comes to America in period costume and realised what a wonderful and perfect nation it really is. That’s not entirely true, but it sure would appeal to a bunch of voters.
Why it wont win: Much like Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn is more focused on getting Saorise Ronan a Best Actress win.

Mad Max: Fury Road

Why it will win: The Fury Road synopsis makes no sense in award winning. Yet, George Miller’s comeback story has won over a lot of good will in Hollywood. Before the awards race hit complete stride it was the front runner thanks to some major critical awards.
Why it wont win: Critics don’t get votes. While Fury Road is a exhilarating adventure thanks to masterful execution, it doesn’t have the wide appeal to rack in enough votes within all the members.

The Martian

Why it will win: Better than perhaps any other film in this category, The Martian manages to draw together an ensemble cast and create its own world. It cleaned up the comedy/musical section of the Golden Globes, so that’s something.
Why it wont win: But that’s also nothing important. In this century, only Chicago and The Artist have won the Oscar after winning best comedy/musical at the Golden Globes and Birdman didn’t even win that award last year. Listing that it was nominated for Best Picture should help DVD and streaming sales, that’s probably about it for The Martian.

The Revenant

Why it will win: The Revenant has turned down the stretch towards victory with a full head of steam. After taking home the gong in the drama section of the Golden Globes, things went quiet for the gritty survival tale, but down the stretch wins in the Directors Guild Association and the BAFTAs has pushed The Revenant towards the top. More than the other two contenders, The Revenant hits the final day of the season at full speed, making it the favourite.
Why it wont win: Since The Sound of Music warbled its way to the top award, only Titanic has won Best Picture without garnering a nomination in either screenplay category. It makes sense there was no nomination because Leo just drags himself around grunting for a good 90 minutes, but that also speaks to the lack of prestige involved in the project.

Room

Why it will win: Brie Larson is going to win, so that might help, I guess.
Why it wont win: Because it’s a perfectly average film and it hasn’t won anything. Room is making up the numbers.

Spotlight

Why it will win: Spotlight took home a Writers Guild win and the all-important Screen Actors Guild award for best ensemble, historically a good indicator for this award. With the SAG win, Spotlight found itself in the lead in this category and the film topic is a harrowing one that hits home for a lot of people around the world. It’s still right in the hunt and may have just been overtaken by The Revenant, but it might be the best film in this category.
Why it wont win: Like The Big Short, Spotlight doesn’t enter the pointy end of the season with momentum. Without a known director, the studio has had to do a lot of the legwork in making Spotlight visible and may have struggled to maintain the rage.

Who could win: The Big Short, Spotlight
Who should win: Spotlight
Who will win: The Revenant

Best Picture preview – 2015 Oscars

Birdhood

2015 has been an odd year for the Best Picture Oscar. Generally each year there is a clear frontrunner and clear upset favourite at this point of the game. One film pulls away following the SAG awards or the Golden Globes and becomes a no-brainer pick. 12 Years a Slave did it, Argo did it, The Artist did it, the list goes on. In 2015, even in the final week before the big show, it’s neck and neck. Birdman and Boyhood have been tussling for a while, and neither really has control. Boyhood took the Golden Globe but Birdman has pulled it back since. But there are six other films in this category, some great, some not so great, and a few of them have a genuine argument that they are forcing their way into contention.
By the way, the rules matter in this category. Unlike every other award handed out at the Oscars, a Best Picture needs to win 50% of the Academy’s first places. It’s a little confusing, so read up on the rules here. But unlike other categories, votes shift up and down to find a movie with 50% first places.

What else could have been nominated

The key omission from the Golden Globes is Foxcatcher. Foxcatcher primed itself as a Best Picture contender, it bagged Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay nominations, all major categories but Best Picture. Eight films were nominated this year, the lowest since the Academy switched to a floating number of films in the category, and Foxcatcher may have been the film that missed out. Nightcrawler had some deserved buzz heading into the season, but despite a great performance from Jake Gyllenhaal it couldn’t squeeze in. Gone Girl fits into many ‘best of 2014’ lists, but it isn’t an Academy type movie, right or wrong. Unbroken never gained traction after early buzz, Into the Woods couldn’t force a musical into the conversation and Pride was ignored. Of the Best Actress nominees, only one film got a Best Picture nomination, while Steve Carrell’s Foxcatcher was the only one to miss out of the Best Actor nominees. Read into that what you will.

The nominees

American Sniper – produced by Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andre Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan
Birdman – Alejandro Gonzzález Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole
Boyhood – Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland
The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven M. Rales and Jeremy Dawson
The Imitation Game – Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman
Selma – Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner
The Theory of Everything – Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten
Whiplash – Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster

American Sniper

Why it will win: American Sniper has a surprising amount of positives going for it. It caused the most ripples with the public, taking in a remarkable amount of money at the box office. It touches on a certain American pride that no other film does on this list, and it appeals to a certain demographic of voters.
Why it wont win: The demographic of voters it appeals to mustn’t have actually watched the movie, because it kind of stinks. Personal opinion aside, it’s portrayal of everyone except SEALS is negative and it hasn’t gotten a great deal of positive press.

Birdman

Why it will win: It has a truly award winning combination: a film about showbiz, a winning turn with a great story by its lead and an inventive style. Birdman took out the top prizes with the Screen Actors Guild, the Producers Guild of America and the Directors Guild of America. Apollo 13 is the only film to win these three awards and not the Oscar.
Why it wont win: It isn’t up for Best Editing (probably because there wasn’t much editing in the film), which is a little strange for a Best Picture winner, and it couldn’t even win the Golden Globe in its category, losing the comedy/musical category to The Grand Budapest Hotel. Alongside Boyhood, Birdman feels almost inconsequential, it doesn’t tackle anything of vast importance like Boyhood does, or feels like it does. Also, it’s not as good as Boyhood.

Boyhood

Why it will win: From its release in the middle of the year, Boyhood has carried a certain importance and brilliance along with it. It is a great combination of passion project and groundbreaking effort, covering 12 years of a life in real time must have taken some persistence. Boyhood is a sprawling, original, brilliant piece of cinema. Also, it took out the drama category at the Golden Globes and the BAFTA, both important wins.
Why it wont win: The July release Boyhood may have resulted in the film peaking too early. Birdman has threatened to overtake it in the early parts of 2015, and since the Golden Globes Boyhood seems to have been slowing down. The showbiz factor behind Birdman may prove important, but the subject matter behind Boyhood is fairly deep.

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Why it will win: Birdman and Boyhood have been jostling in this category, and there is surely a section of the voters looking for something different. Anderson does different, and his eccentric style has never been as widely applauded as with this film. The Grand Budapest Hotel is probably going to get far more traction in directing or writing categories though.
Why it wont win: It’s been lost amongst the crowd, and perhaps the comedy/musical win at the Golden Globes is all it will get. In itself, that is a good win – especially considering it beat Birdman – and The Grand Budapest Hotel may have to settle for that.

The Imitation Game

Why it will win: It was a big hit during the film festivals and that can hold some sway. The Imitation Game also boasted a strong performance and a strong story about a tragic figure.
Why it wont win: There are eight movies on this list, and as you will find out if you bother to stick around, a lot of them aren’t really a chance. This film suffers more because it falls alongside The Theory of Everything as British biographies, and The Theory of Everything is more noticeable because of its participation in the Best Actor battle.

Selma

Why it will win: The backlash against the snubbing of David Oyelowo and Ana DuVernay could work for Selma. It is also a biography of an immensely important man that was a key figure in the lives of many in the Academy, that’s always important. Selma looms as a key outsider, a film that could easily shift into the field.
Why it wont win: Selma wasn’t nominated for anything else in the main categories, which indicates it wont draw a lot of votes from the Academy. The concerns over the validity of it’s characters, in particular Lyndon B. Johnson hurt Selma in the lead up to nominations, and it wont help in the voting process.

The Theory of Everything

Why it will win: It’s the only film nominated in both lead acting categories, and is a great chance to take out Best Actor. That will sway some voting, but not a lot.
Why it wont win: Amongst the four biographical films in the list, it is neither the best (The Imitation Game), the most important (Selma), or the one that made the biggest splash (American Sniper). The Theory of Everything is making up the numbers.

Whiplash

Why it will win: It’s the little film that could, Whiplash came from nowhere really to snag some nominations, including a likely win in Best Supporting Actor, and quietly it could be the best film on the list. Whiplash is a major player in Best Adapted Screenplay as well, but not in this category.
Why it wont win: No film means less that Whiplash. Don’t take that as criticism of the film – it’s a giant success – but following an aspiring jazz drummer feels inconsequential against some of the other topics in this category. This nomination is more than Whiplash could have hoped for, but it certainly deserves it.

Despite what I have tried to convey over half of this piece, it really does come down to Birdman and Boyhood. Boyhood may have been overtaken late by Birdman, and that is the way I am leaning.

Who could win: Boyhood, Selma
Who should win: Boyhood
Who will win: Birdman

For more coverage of the 87th Academy Awards, click here.

2014 Oscars – Best Picture

He is getting closer

This is part of a series previewing the 86th Academy Awards. For the home page of that series, click here.

So here is the big one, where all that campaigning comes to a head. And there are some actual movies as well. The frontrunner for a long time in this category has been 12 Years a Slave, who has mostly seen off challenges from Saving Mr Banks (yes, really), American Hustle, The Wolf of Wall Street and now its main rival is Gravity. A late run has been made by Dallas Buyers Club, based on the sheer force of the McConnaisance, but it appears that the main award will come down to the beautiful thriller Gravity and the sorrowful epic 12 Years a Slave.

What else could have been nominated:
Despite early talk of Saving Mr Banks being a contender it was all but ignored in awards season. Another snub for the Coen brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis) caused some unrest and Robert Redford was dismayed that All Is Lost didn’t gain any traction. Elsewhere, Rush was Golden Globe nominated (to make up numbers) and Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom would have fancied itself a chance early on. One film I would have liked to see gain some recognition is The Spectacular Now, but it obviously didn’t work out. Perhaps Inside Llewyn Davis could have squeezed out Captain Phillips, but otherwise the field appears to be pretty solid.

What was nominated:
American Hustle – Produced by: Charles Roven, Richard Suckle, Megan Ellison and Jonathan Gordan
Captain Phillips – Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti and Michael De Luca
Dallas Buyers Club – Robbie Brenner and Rachel Winter
Gravity – Alsonfo Cuarón and David Heyman
Her – Megan Ellison (again!), Spike Jonze and Vincent Landay
Nebraska – Albert Berger and Ron Yerxa
Philomena – Gabrielle Tana, Steve Coogan and Tracey Seaward
12 Years a Slave – Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen and Anthony Katagas
The Wolf of Wall Street – Martin Scorsese, Leonardo DiCaprio, Joey McFarland and Emma Tillinger Koskoff

American Hustle

Why it will win: American Hustle has a great set up for success, a multi-character drama with brilliant performances, 7 nominations in the major categories and a retro redemption story. American Hustle is officially a contender, right up there with Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, and is possibly the most complete film of the three.
Why it wont win: American Hustle has run a strong campaign, but it spread the load in the campaign more than it perhaps should have. With all those nominations (and it might not win anything), American Hustle needed to focus on a particular award.
Film wise, the ending of the picture was a little average and that is what will sit with viewers/voters, while 12 Years a Slave and Gravity both had strong, emotional finales.

Captain Phillips

Why it will win: Um. Maybe the Academy will experience a stunning growth in donkey votes. Honestly, Captain Phillips is a good thriller, but doesn’t really belong in the Best Picture category. Maybe the Tom Hanks/Barkhan Abdi good-will super-combo will draw votes?
Why it wont win: Because it is a good thriller, but it doesn’t really belong in the Best Picture category. If you aren’t reading this properly, Captain Phillips doesn’t have a chance.

Dallas Buyers Club

Why it will win: It has experienced a slight increase in momentum on the back of the mountain of awards for its stars. While it probably wont win, Dallas Buyers Club’s story of AIDS sufferer come good is a classic vote winner.
Why it wont win: It really has come from nowhere in the Best Picture category, and that late run could hinder its chances. And as an overall film, Dallas Buyers Club is a great vehicle for acting, but isn’t necessarily a great picture. Some of the plot movements are a little strange and some characters aren’t dealt with very smartly (particularly Rayon).

Gravity

Why it will win: It is a stunning film that will stick with voters for a long time. Gravity looks like it is going to run a close second place, but it is hard to discount the stunning visuals and the eternal good will attached to Sandra Bullock and George Clooney.
Why it wont win: Gravity is a film that is infinitely better in cinema (especially 3D) and most voters don’t have time to visit cinemas. Voters viewing Gravity on their computers or TVs at home will not appreciate Gravity the same. Also, the dialogue and script is a little weak, leading to comparisons with Avatar, another beautiful film that wasn’t exactly a Pullitzer prize winner.

Her

Why it will win: Because it is the most endearing (and probably best) film of the lot. Her is a stunningly crafted film that is watchable over and over. There is something extroadinarily emotional and watchable about Her (yes, I liked it).
Why it wont win: Her looks set to fall short and hasn’t really been in contention for the big prize. Spike Jonze is in line for Best Original Screenplay, and that might be it. The futuristic premise may not have sat well with older voters, and it is a film that has to be given a chance to grow into.

Nebraska

Why it will win: Nebraska will certainly strike a chord with older voters and it is a deeply nostalgic film. Apart from that, maybe voters will go for the lack of colour, or something.
Why it wont win: Nebraska is simply a good film in a great field and will be left behind.

Philomena

Why it will win: Everybody likes Judy Dench and Steve Coogan is ok, I guess. So there are some votes. Philomena is a nice buddy comedy, but like Nebraska it really should just be happy to be here.
Why it wont win: Read above.

12 Years a Slave

Why it will win: Everything about it screams Oscar winner. Devastating depiction of slavery, strong lead performance from Chiwetel Ejiofor, impressive supporting performances, delicate direction and redemptive finale. 12 Years a Slave was built to win Oscars (and be a mighty fine film) and has been the front runner throughout the awards season. It is hard to see it being overtaken at the post.
Why it wont win: It isn’t the best film in the bunch (in my opinion), but that hasn’t slowed things down yet. Perhaps voters will experience fatigue and look elsewhere for a winner, or Gravity/American Hustle will come up with something big.

The Wolf of Wall Street

Why it will win: Early on The Wolf of Wall Street appeared to be a serious contender, but reviews weren’t overwhelmingly positive and it dropped off the pace. Perhaps the Academy will look back over Scorsese’s previous character studies that have gone unrewarded and through nostalgia and regret give him some votes.
Why it wont win: As enjoyable as it is, The Wolf of Wall Street is a three hour cocaine montage. It is a great film, but there aren’t a whole lot of levels to the drama, and despite DiCaprio’s unbelievable performance, his character is kind of an unlovable jerk. The Wolf of Wall Street has made a deliberate choice to campaign for DiCaprio’s Best Actor nomination instead, which is probably a better choice.

What will win: 12 Years a Slave
What could win: Gravity, American Hustle
What should win: Her