Best Supporting Actress preview – 2015 Oscars

Mum’s the word

Patricia Arquette already has a spot perfectly set out on her mantlepiece. She’s gone to the trouble of having a special glass case built, it’s 15 inches tall so it can fit the little golden man in snugly. On the glass case is a little placque reading “Best Supporting Actress, 2015”. Yeah, she’s winning this award.
Full disclosure: Unfortunately I haven’t seen either Laura Dern’s performance in Wild or Maryl Streep’s in Into The Woods. Therefore, their sections will cover their roles in the awards race. I apologise.

Who else could have been nominated

There are a couple of notable missing nominees. Jessica Chastain drew her standard plaudits for her role in A Most Violent Year, which was frozen out by the Academy, and Rene Russo put in a career sparking performance in Nightcrawler without a nomination. Vanessa Redgrave of Foxcatcher would have been close to busting into this category had she been given a couple more scenes, while Carmen Ejogo could say the same from Selma. Carrie Coon provided a much needed heart in Gone Girl, but she is a left field pick.

Who was nominated

Patricia Arquette – as Olivia Evans in Boyhood
Laura Dern – as Barbara “Bobbi” Grey in Wild
Keira Knightley – as Joan Clarke in The Imitation Game
Emma Stone – as Sam Thompson in Birdman
Meryl Streep – as The Witch in Into The Woods

Patricia Arquette

Why she will win: This is as close to a lock as there could be. She ticks almost every box: her character ages on screen showing a certain sacrifice from Arquette, she breaks down during middle age as half the Academy is sure to have experienced, and she has the most memorable performance in a Best Picture caliber film. She’s won 32 separate awards for her role in Boyhood, some of them shared, most of them not. She’s building an entire trophy case for this film, but the Oscar is going on the mantlepiece.
Why she wont win: Um, she’s won so many awards the voters are sick of her? I don’t know, I’m grasping at straws here.

Laura Dern

Why she will win: Dern gained a surprise nomination for this category. She doesn’t have much screen time, and it was thought her role could be passed over. It wasn’t, so she gets a free feed, alcohol and an entertaining evening as a reward. Good for you, Laura Dern.
Why she wont win: She was a surprise nominee in a field that is basically already decided. She’s not going to get close.

Keira Knightley

Why she will win: Knightley is a respected actress who has been nominated before (and should have been nominated for A Dangerous Mind! Please!), so she has the attention of the Academy. She balances controlling aggression and naivety in The Imitation Game quite well.
Why she wont win: This isn’t the career defining role Knightley needed to capture the attention of the Academy. She’s good in The Imitation Game, but she doesn’t really push her steriotypical boundaries as a polite English actress. Plus, her last name isn’t Arquette.

Emma Stone

Why she will win: A competitor! Stone is the legitimate dark horse in this category; if anybody is going to take this award away from Arquette it is her. Stone gets a great scene alongside Michael Keaton in Birdman, one that allows her to show off her various talents, and stays sharp for the rest of the film. Also, supporting categories often reward journey actors or rising youngsters. Stone is a rising youngster, and some voter fatigue for Arquette could help her along.
Why she wont win: Remember how I said supporting categories reward journey actors? Well, Stone’s rival is one of those. Stone has plenty of time to build on her considerable acting chops and return to the Oscars.

Meryl Streep

Why she will win: If there is one certainty in life (other than death, taxes and idiots) it’s that you should never doubt Meryl Streep. She’ll make a fool of you. If she wanted to, she could dress up like Arquette and take the statue and nobody would know. Streep showed off her singing voice for Into The Woods, just to prove she is more talented than us in every way, and has enough respect to garner some votes.
Why she wont win: Streep has that many nominations (19!) that this one doesn’t really matter, it’s just normal to see her on the ballot. Streep wont win this year, but don’t doubt she will come back for sweet, bloody revenge soon.

If you have read any of this, you know where this is going.

Who should win: Patricia Arquette
Who could win: Emma Stone
Who will win: Patricia Arquette

For more on the 87th Academy Awards, click here.

Best Picture preview – 2015 Oscars

Birdhood

2015 has been an odd year for the Best Picture Oscar. Generally each year there is a clear frontrunner and clear upset favourite at this point of the game. One film pulls away following the SAG awards or the Golden Globes and becomes a no-brainer pick. 12 Years a Slave did it, Argo did it, The Artist did it, the list goes on. In 2015, even in the final week before the big show, it’s neck and neck. Birdman and Boyhood have been tussling for a while, and neither really has control. Boyhood took the Golden Globe but Birdman has pulled it back since. But there are six other films in this category, some great, some not so great, and a few of them have a genuine argument that they are forcing their way into contention.
By the way, the rules matter in this category. Unlike every other award handed out at the Oscars, a Best Picture needs to win 50% of the Academy’s first places. It’s a little confusing, so read up on the rules here. But unlike other categories, votes shift up and down to find a movie with 50% first places.

What else could have been nominated

The key omission from the Golden Globes is Foxcatcher. Foxcatcher primed itself as a Best Picture contender, it bagged Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay nominations, all major categories but Best Picture. Eight films were nominated this year, the lowest since the Academy switched to a floating number of films in the category, and Foxcatcher may have been the film that missed out. Nightcrawler had some deserved buzz heading into the season, but despite a great performance from Jake Gyllenhaal it couldn’t squeeze in. Gone Girl fits into many ‘best of 2014’ lists, but it isn’t an Academy type movie, right or wrong. Unbroken never gained traction after early buzz, Into the Woods couldn’t force a musical into the conversation and Pride was ignored. Of the Best Actress nominees, only one film got a Best Picture nomination, while Steve Carrell’s Foxcatcher was the only one to miss out of the Best Actor nominees. Read into that what you will.

The nominees

American Sniper – produced by Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andre Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan
Birdman – Alejandro Gonzzález Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole
Boyhood – Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland
The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven M. Rales and Jeremy Dawson
The Imitation Game – Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman
Selma – Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner
The Theory of Everything – Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten
Whiplash – Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster

American Sniper

Why it will win: American Sniper has a surprising amount of positives going for it. It caused the most ripples with the public, taking in a remarkable amount of money at the box office. It touches on a certain American pride that no other film does on this list, and it appeals to a certain demographic of voters.
Why it wont win: The demographic of voters it appeals to mustn’t have actually watched the movie, because it kind of stinks. Personal opinion aside, it’s portrayal of everyone except SEALS is negative and it hasn’t gotten a great deal of positive press.

Birdman

Why it will win: It has a truly award winning combination: a film about showbiz, a winning turn with a great story by its lead and an inventive style. Birdman took out the top prizes with the Screen Actors Guild, the Producers Guild of America and the Directors Guild of America. Apollo 13 is the only film to win these three awards and not the Oscar.
Why it wont win: It isn’t up for Best Editing (probably because there wasn’t much editing in the film), which is a little strange for a Best Picture winner, and it couldn’t even win the Golden Globe in its category, losing the comedy/musical category to The Grand Budapest Hotel. Alongside Boyhood, Birdman feels almost inconsequential, it doesn’t tackle anything of vast importance like Boyhood does, or feels like it does. Also, it’s not as good as Boyhood.

Boyhood

Why it will win: From its release in the middle of the year, Boyhood has carried a certain importance and brilliance along with it. It is a great combination of passion project and groundbreaking effort, covering 12 years of a life in real time must have taken some persistence. Boyhood is a sprawling, original, brilliant piece of cinema. Also, it took out the drama category at the Golden Globes and the BAFTA, both important wins.
Why it wont win: The July release Boyhood may have resulted in the film peaking too early. Birdman has threatened to overtake it in the early parts of 2015, and since the Golden Globes Boyhood seems to have been slowing down. The showbiz factor behind Birdman may prove important, but the subject matter behind Boyhood is fairly deep.

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Why it will win: Birdman and Boyhood have been jostling in this category, and there is surely a section of the voters looking for something different. Anderson does different, and his eccentric style has never been as widely applauded as with this film. The Grand Budapest Hotel is probably going to get far more traction in directing or writing categories though.
Why it wont win: It’s been lost amongst the crowd, and perhaps the comedy/musical win at the Golden Globes is all it will get. In itself, that is a good win – especially considering it beat Birdman – and The Grand Budapest Hotel may have to settle for that.

The Imitation Game

Why it will win: It was a big hit during the film festivals and that can hold some sway. The Imitation Game also boasted a strong performance and a strong story about a tragic figure.
Why it wont win: There are eight movies on this list, and as you will find out if you bother to stick around, a lot of them aren’t really a chance. This film suffers more because it falls alongside The Theory of Everything as British biographies, and The Theory of Everything is more noticeable because of its participation in the Best Actor battle.

Selma

Why it will win: The backlash against the snubbing of David Oyelowo and Ana DuVernay could work for Selma. It is also a biography of an immensely important man that was a key figure in the lives of many in the Academy, that’s always important. Selma looms as a key outsider, a film that could easily shift into the field.
Why it wont win: Selma wasn’t nominated for anything else in the main categories, which indicates it wont draw a lot of votes from the Academy. The concerns over the validity of it’s characters, in particular Lyndon B. Johnson hurt Selma in the lead up to nominations, and it wont help in the voting process.

The Theory of Everything

Why it will win: It’s the only film nominated in both lead acting categories, and is a great chance to take out Best Actor. That will sway some voting, but not a lot.
Why it wont win: Amongst the four biographical films in the list, it is neither the best (The Imitation Game), the most important (Selma), or the one that made the biggest splash (American Sniper). The Theory of Everything is making up the numbers.

Whiplash

Why it will win: It’s the little film that could, Whiplash came from nowhere really to snag some nominations, including a likely win in Best Supporting Actor, and quietly it could be the best film on the list. Whiplash is a major player in Best Adapted Screenplay as well, but not in this category.
Why it wont win: No film means less that Whiplash. Don’t take that as criticism of the film – it’s a giant success – but following an aspiring jazz drummer feels inconsequential against some of the other topics in this category. This nomination is more than Whiplash could have hoped for, but it certainly deserves it.

Despite what I have tried to convey over half of this piece, it really does come down to Birdman and Boyhood. Boyhood may have been overtaken late by Birdman, and that is the way I am leaning.

Who could win: Boyhood, Selma
Who should win: Boyhood
Who will win: Birdman

For more coverage of the 87th Academy Awards, click here.

Best Directing preview – 2015 Oscars

The rivalry continues

Just like with the Best Picture race, Best Director is coming down to two: Birdman or Boyhood. The undisputed heavyweights of the awards season, Alejando González Iñárritu and Richard Linklater again lock horns, and again it is difficult to split the two. At this point (Feb. 10), it seems only Wes Anderson could break into contention.

Who else could have been nominated?

There are two notable omissions from the Golden Globe field for this award. Reliably brilliant David Fincher missed out for Gone Girl. This is the biggest snub of the category, as usual Fincher’s work was superb, but Gone Girl wasn’t marketed as an awards film. One film that was marketed that way was Selma. Ana DuVernay failed to register a nomination. Selma basically fell off a cliff come awards season, only garnering nominations for Best Picture and Best Original Song (which it is likely to win). Perhaps a result of backlash about history, perhaps because the film wasn’t really all that good. Either way, DuVernay’s missed nomination isn’t because of race or gender. Following the exceptional rise of American Sniper, Clint Eastwood had to figure into conversations for this award. Elsewhere, Christopher Nolan will always have fan boys calling snub when he doesn’t get nominated, James Marsh’s The Theory of Everything has focused solely on Eddie Redmayne and Damien Chazelle will be happy enough with a screenplay nomination.

Who was nominated?

Alejando González Iñárritu – Birdman
Richard Linklater – Boyhood
Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game

Alejando González Iñárritu

Why he will win: Birdman provided the most memorable direction. Plan and simple. The outstanding commitment displayed in the one-take style has to help, and the audacity of that premise is excellent. It isn’t as out there as Anderson, but he might pick up votes from that field. For artistic flair and sheer determination, Iñárritu has to take the prize. Plus, the Directors Guild win is a undeniable boost. Birdman seems to be gathering steam every day on it’s way to a Best Picture nod, which also helps the cause.
Why he wont win: While, Iñárritu slaved away for a vision on his film for a few years, Linklater slaved away for 12 putting his together. Plus the style of direction may have taken away from the narrative, but people who say that need to stop being so serious about film.

Richard Linklater

Why he will win: He’s been nominated twice previous to this year (although both for writing) so the Academy has admired Linklater for some time, and the vision for Boyhood is so dominant it is hard to ignore. Linklater is a feel good candidate, he didn’t resort to flashy gimmicks to sell his story and stuck to that story for over a decade. The Golden Globe win helps Linklater, but there certainly is a feeling that Boyhood is slipping behind.
Why he wont win: Compared to the flashiness of Iñárritu and Anderson, Linklater’s direction was reasonably dull. That doesn’t make it bad, but it’s a selling point against him. Birdman seems to be taking all before it in the awards races right now, and that might push Linklater under.

Wes Anderson

Why he will win: Anderson is experiencing a wave of enthusiasm around The Grand Budapest Hotel. He’s certainly getting wider adulation than usual for his art-house fare, and momentum is important, particularly following the Golden Globe for his film. Perhaps voter fatigue will hurt the front runners and Anderson could sneak in.
Why he wont win: He’s films are very personal and his kind of hate-it-or-love-it films traditionally don’t do well with the Academy. His direction was the most out there and unfortunately that doesn’t help, plus he hasn’t figured in any key awards.

Bennett Miller

Why he will win: Miller has been nominated before and was unlucky to miss out for Moneyball. His direction on Foxcatcher was steady, and allowed room for the acting to take center stage. That’s not really a bonus, but I’m clutching at straws here.
Why he wont win: Perhaps it’s because Foxcatcher was so slow and dull. Perhaps it’s because he was extremely lucky to scrape a nomination in in the first place. Perhaps it’s because the ballots are being run in reverse order. Either way, it’s not going to happen.

Morten Tyldum

Why he will win: Tyldum is from Norway and his previous three films have all been really well received around the film festival circuit. That doesn’t mean he will win, but Tyldum did a very solid job on The Imitation Game, and he is a star on the rise.
Why he wont win: If you’ve read all the way down to here, you know this is basically split between Linklater and Iñárritu. Tyldum is basically an unknown, but it’s worth looking out for him in the future.

So who’s winning? This is a tough one to call, and there is a lot of water still left to go under the bridge, but the awards point to Linklater.

Who could win: Alejando González Iñárritu
Who should win: Alejando González Iñárritu
Who will win: Richard Linklater

For the rest of the 2015 Academy Awards coverage, click here.

Boyhood – Film Review

“Everything? What’s the point? I sure as shit don’t know”

A fascinating concept, Richard Linklater’s Boyhood is a modern epic, that traverses decades to show the story of a boy growing up in this millennium. The depth and length of this film is breathtaking, and while it runs long and introduces more characters than we get to know, the end result is a brilliant, captivating film. Boyhood is the kind of film that is so different, yet so well done that it feels like a once in a lifetime experience.

Beginning at the age of five, Boyhood follows the life of Mason (Ellar Coltrane) as he grows and develops into a young adult. Mason lives with his older sister Samantha (Lorelei Linklater) and his mother, Olivia (Patricia Arquette). His father, Mason Sr (Ethan Hawke) is estranged from the family, and Olivia moves the children with her as she pursues her own relationships and jobs around Texas.

Boyhood is the kind of film that seems utterly ridiculous as a concept, it was filmed over 12 years as the actors aged and Mason grew older. As a result, the film picks up concurrently with Mason as he experiences his adolescence. Linklater does a magnificent job of involving current events that are massively important to our time – from lengthy discussions around the Iraq War, to popular culture particularities such as tamagotchis, to predicting the return of Star Wars. This, grounded with the constant use of popular music from the time, keeps Boyhood grounded in the real world, and allows the film to keep moving forward. It’s impossible to think that a concept so strong as this can be matched by the film, but it happens and it is a remarkable achievement of cinema.

Boyhood is so perfectly written and constructed for it’s concept that it allows full audience participation. Scenes are watched more carefully wondering what time period it is and how old Mason is. And because we watched Mason grow, we feel genuinely invested in his decisions and his actions. Characters come and go so often it’s hard to keep up, some aren’t fleshed out properly, some are given unnecessary screen time, but much like memory, people come and go.

The actions and movements of supporting characters are often not explained, which makes more sense in this film than any other; this is all from the perspective of Mason. This allows certain characters some great cameos. Marco Perella gets a great role as Bill, Tom McTigue gets a brilliant scene as Mr. Turlington, Zoe Graham makes the most of her role as Sheena and Richard Robichaux gets a largely unexpected and random role as Mason’s Boss. Because of the short film style of Boyhood, these basically unknown actors get a chance to fill in the blanks around the core cast and do it terrifically.

The core cast is crucial, and that so obviously begins with Coltrane. It’s amazing to ponder the fiery mess this film would have been had Coltrane not been able to carry it. His acting ability fluctuates at times, he is particularly good around age 9 or 10, and then even better around 17-18, but he does enough to keep this film from completely falling in on itself.

Coltrane is aided by the other main presences of the film, including Arquette, who’s performance as Olivia is spot on. Her wisdom and sensibility is important to the character, as she is such a grounding force in the film. Arquette is in line for an Oscar and deservedly so.
Hawke, as the other parent for Mason, carries a certain charasmatic flair that gives his character weight. According to the always interesting IMDb trivia, has Linklater died during the filming of Boyhood, Hawke was to take over the directing, and his investment in the film shows through his performance.
As Mason’s older sister, Lorelei Linklater is passable, but at times she seems out of her depth. Apparently she wanted out at certain points during filming and it shows as she seems disinterested, but for such an important presence, she does well to remain solid throughout the film.

This is Richard Linklater’s masterpiece however, a truly engrossing film that moves through America and Texas with a certain purpose. It manages to fit in serious discussions about sex, love, life and all that importance around a long running humour. To put it all together and remain so stringent to his vision, Linklater creates an absolute epic. Boyhood is an experience film that is so full of wisdom, creativity and sheer brilliance, it is unforgettable.

Boyhood

9.0 out of 10 – Amazing.

A modern film epic, Boyhood manages to fill in 12 years of life with captivating drama an purpose it is impossible to forget. This is Richard Linklater’s masterpiece.