Mum’s the word
Patricia Arquette already has a spot perfectly set out on her mantlepiece. She’s gone to the trouble of having a special glass case built, it’s 15 inches tall so it can fit the little golden man in snugly. On the glass case is a little placque reading “Best Supporting Actress, 2015”. Yeah, she’s winning this award.
Full disclosure: Unfortunately I haven’t seen either Laura Dern’s performance in Wild or Maryl Streep’s in Into The Woods. Therefore, their sections will cover their roles in the awards race. I apologise.
Who else could have been nominated
There are a couple of notable missing nominees. Jessica Chastain drew her standard plaudits for her role in A Most Violent Year, which was frozen out by the Academy, and Rene Russo put in a career sparking performance in Nightcrawler without a nomination. Vanessa Redgrave of Foxcatcher would have been close to busting into this category had she been given a couple more scenes, while Carmen Ejogo could say the same from Selma. Carrie Coon provided a much needed heart in Gone Girl, but she is a left field pick.
Who was nominated
Patricia Arquette – as Olivia Evans in Boyhood
Laura Dern – as Barbara “Bobbi” Grey in Wild
Keira Knightley – as Joan Clarke in The Imitation Game
Emma Stone – as Sam Thompson in Birdman
Meryl Streep – as The Witch in Into The Woods
Patricia Arquette
Why she will win: This is as close to a lock as there could be. She ticks almost every box: her character ages on screen showing a certain sacrifice from Arquette, she breaks down during middle age as half the Academy is sure to have experienced, and she has the most memorable performance in a Best Picture caliber film. She’s won 32 separate awards for her role in Boyhood, some of them shared, most of them not. She’s building an entire trophy case for this film, but the Oscar is going on the mantlepiece.
Why she wont win: Um, she’s won so many awards the voters are sick of her? I don’t know, I’m grasping at straws here.
Laura Dern
Why she will win: Dern gained a surprise nomination for this category. She doesn’t have much screen time, and it was thought her role could be passed over. It wasn’t, so she gets a free feed, alcohol and an entertaining evening as a reward. Good for you, Laura Dern.
Why she wont win: She was a surprise nominee in a field that is basically already decided. She’s not going to get close.
Keira Knightley
Why she will win: Knightley is a respected actress who has been nominated before (and should have been nominated for A Dangerous Mind! Please!), so she has the attention of the Academy. She balances controlling aggression and naivety in The Imitation Game quite well.
Why she wont win: This isn’t the career defining role Knightley needed to capture the attention of the Academy. She’s good in The Imitation Game, but she doesn’t really push her steriotypical boundaries as a polite English actress. Plus, her last name isn’t Arquette.
Emma Stone
Why she will win: A competitor! Stone is the legitimate dark horse in this category; if anybody is going to take this award away from Arquette it is her. Stone gets a great scene alongside Michael Keaton in Birdman, one that allows her to show off her various talents, and stays sharp for the rest of the film. Also, supporting categories often reward journey actors or rising youngsters. Stone is a rising youngster, and some voter fatigue for Arquette could help her along.
Why she wont win: Remember how I said supporting categories reward journey actors? Well, Stone’s rival is one of those. Stone has plenty of time to build on her considerable acting chops and return to the Oscars.
Meryl Streep
Why she will win: If there is one certainty in life (other than death, taxes and idiots) it’s that you should never doubt Meryl Streep. She’ll make a fool of you. If she wanted to, she could dress up like Arquette and take the statue and nobody would know. Streep showed off her singing voice for Into The Woods, just to prove she is more talented than us in every way, and has enough respect to garner some votes.
Why she wont win: Streep has that many nominations (19!) that this one doesn’t really matter, it’s just normal to see her on the ballot. Streep wont win this year, but don’t doubt she will come back for sweet, bloody revenge soon.
If you have read any of this, you know where this is going.
Who should win: Patricia Arquette
Who could win: Emma Stone
Who will win: Patricia Arquette
For more on the 87th Academy Awards, click here.
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