Rushing, not dragging
Since day one, this race has belonged to J.K. Simmons. A career supporting player, at the age of 67 Simmons stumbled onto his IMDb page-leading role in Whiplash. This category isn’t completely dead though, there are some other brilliant performances in here, in particular in the Best Picture dueling movies. But, sorry, no matter what you read below, Simmons is going to run away with this award.
The direction of this award is a different argument. Though Simmons was excellent, he was practically a co-lead. I wouldn’t have been remotely shocked if he was nominated as Best Actor. In that category, Steve Carrell is nominated, though he isn’t the lead role in his film. This doesn’t mean Simmons shouldn’t win, he put in the best performance in this group, but his isn’t a traditional, all-guns loaded supporting role. If the supporting awards are heading towards co-leads, it would be another question mark on an already worrisome awards ceremony. That doesn’t mean I wont be spending all my spare time writing about it though.
Full disclosure: unfortunately I didn’t get around to seeing The Judge. So Robert Duvall’s chances will be purely based on the race not his performance. My apologies.
Who else could have been nominated
Tyler Perry us the showiest omission. He played a true supporting role in Gone Girl, coming in to steal every scene brilliantly. Robert Duvall appears to be the dead weight in this category (again, I apologise for that italic section above) and Perry could have slotted in here. Another co-lead supporter was the basically unknown Tony Revolori from The Grand Budapest Hotel. His controlled, smart performance was terrific. Nightcrawler‘s Riz Ahmed was probably the best sidekick of the season, while (spoiler) Matt Damon was one scene short of a lasting impression in Interstellar and Tim Roth and Tom Wilkinson were hurt by the facts that hurt Selma‘s race, Wilkinson in particular. Channing Tatum could have broken into here if Carrell was the lead role, but Mark Ruffalo got the nod.
Who was nominated
Robert Duvall as Judge Joseph Palmer in The Judge
Ethan Hawke as Mason Evans Sr. in Boyhood
Edward Norton as Mike Shiner in Birdman
Mark Ruffalo as Dave Shultz in Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons as Terence Fletcher in Whiplash
Robert Duvall
Why he will win: At 84 years old, Duvall is the oldest male ever nominated for an acting award. It’s his seventh nomination, the first came in this category 42 years ago for The Godfather. These facts don’t really mean much, but it’s nice publicity for Duvall.
Why he wont win: The Judge isn’t The Godfather (breaking news there) and Judge Joseph Palmer isn’t Tom Hagen. He didn’t win 42 years ago, Duvall isn’t winning now.
Ethan Hawke
Why he will win: Hawke has been awarded four times by the Academy, twice in this category and twice for writing. Hawke was electric in Boyhood, while Patricia Arquette got the emotional scenes, Hawke got the role that kept the film moving. He got the best comedy moments and was a breath of fresh air throughout the film.
Why he wont win: Hawke, along with Norton has found himself in this category in the wrong year. While his performance was great, he hasn’t won anything and Boyhood has funneled all its campaigning behind Arquette, Richard Linklater and getting the Best Picture.
Edward Norton
Why he will win: Norton missed his chance to win a statue at the turn of the millenium (seriously, American History X, he was robbed), so maybe the Academy will reward him for his losses. Much like Hawke, Norton got a great role, and he nailed it. Norton is the second place getter, maybe voters have tired of Simmons winning every award in this category? It’s not likely, but it’s possible.
Why he wont win: Like Hawke, Norton picked the wrong year. He was great – he usually is – but, as you’ve gathered so far, he isn’t going to win. Again like Hawke, Norton’s film hasn’t been campaigning for him.
Mark Ruffalo
Why he will win: This category is genuinely stacked with gifted performers, and Ruffalo is one of them. He brought a subtle calmness to his role in Foxcatcher, matching his character as the grounded member of the trifecta.
Why he wont win: I’m running out of reasons to say actors wont win. Just scroll down to J.K. Simmons.
J.K. Simmons
Why he will win: Finally! Simmons has been the frontrunner for this award since he threw that chair at Miles Teller. He’s won everything he possibly could, and he deserved it. Simmons basically owns the movie. His rage is perfectly paced and it appears that Simmons has been waiting a long time just for this role. It’s a great performance.
Why he wont win: Not quite my tempo. The only reason Simmons shouldn’t win is if he accepts his award, makes his speech, hears the music rolling to call him off and closes his fist towards the orchestra.
Who should win: J.K. Simmons
Who could win: Edward Norton
Who will win: J.K. Simmons
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