A weirdo, a villain, a journalist, a spy and a has-been, the supporting actor category this year reads like some kind of bizarro Breakfast Club.
Like a disruptive Judd Nelson, it’s the has-been who has been getting all the attention.
Sylvester Stallone has been sweeping the awards circuit for his worn in role as the Rocky Balboa your dad always feared he would become.
Stallone’s only real competition here is Mark Rylance, a man who’s IMDb reads like a who’s who of movies you’ve never seen.
Can an unknown spy topple a creaky has-been?
Who could have been nominated?
The elephant in the room is Idris Elba, who through a combination of his film being a Netlflix joint and him not being white, missed out.
Others missing from the Golden Globe shortlist are Michael Shannon for 99 Homes and Paul Dano for Love & Mercy, but they were barely seen, forgotten films.
Steve Carrell (The Big Short), Michael Keaton (Spotlight), Chiwitel Ejiofor (The Martian) and Robert De Niro (Joy) all got lost in the wash during campaigns for their films.
Oscar Isaac continued his excellent form in Ex Machina, Christoph Waltz couldn’t bring is Tarantino magic to Spectre, while there were some rumblings around Harrison Ford for his performance in The Force Awakens, and but there was only room for one mediocre old-man performance in this category.
Who is nominated?
Christian Bale as Michael Burry in The Big Short
Tom Hardy as John Fitzgerald in The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo as Michael Rezendes in Spotlight
Mark Rylance as Rudolf Abel in Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone as Rocky Balboa in Creed
The nominees:
Christian Bale
Why he will win: It takes a strong performance to stand out among a cast of Steve Carrell, Brad Pitt and Ryan Gosling and Bale’s weirdness created a character who was definitely memorable. He’s won this category before, so Bale knows how to rack up votes.
Why he wont win: Bale hasn’t won anything for his performance and The Big Short is firmly focused on getting over the line in the Best Picture category. Also, while he may have stood out against the big names, he actually wasn’t as good as Gosling.
Tom Hardy
Why he will win: Everybody admires Hardy for his commitment to roles and his brilliant ability to pull off difficult assignments. And he out-shone than Leonardo Fucking DiCaprio in Leo’s own movie.
Why he wont win: He also had to put on a weird accent and mumble a lot. Hardy doesn’t seem to care about this kind of stuff and puts on a too-cool for the industry persona that isn’t going to endear him to voters.
Mark Ruffalo
Why he will win: The best performance in a film that won the SAG for outstanding ensemble has to earn you something. Ruffalo has been kicking around doing great work for a long time now and is due some recognition.
Why he wont win: Much like Bale, Ruffalo hasn’t won anything and nobody is really concerned about his chances anyway. Back to back nominations is nothing to sniff at and Ruffalo will take a trophy eventually.
Mark Rylance
Why he will win: Rylance is a great combination. An adored stage performer who has taken mostly anonymous roles in films until now, and he is set to explode as his next two movies are with Steven Spielberg and Christopher Nolan. Rylance’s layered performance is the best in this category and he brings a great calmness to a film that is always striving for chaos. This is the role that deserves a statue.
Why he wont win: There is just so much love for Stallone that Rylance could be drowned out. Both Bridge of Spies and Creed are solely focused on this award and Creed might just have a harder punch behind it.
Sylvester Stallone
Why he will win: That up swell of positivity when Stallone won the Golden Globe set a tone that continued through the awards season for Stallone. He hits the right notes in Creed and everyone is going to love him remembering to thank some coloured people on stage, he looks like the winner here.
Why he wont win: I don’t think anybody saw Creed and gasped into saying, “give Stallone an Oscar!”. He was fine but there was nothing amazing about his performance and with actors making up the biggest contingent of the academy, Rylance could get a boost from people who know what they are looking for. But, legacy speaks.