Those watching the Big Bash coverage of the Perth Scorchers versus the Hobart Hurricanes on channel 10, were introduced to the interestingly named ‘GillyFactor’. While Gilchrist tried to reiterate that this was not his own invention and in fact ‘not new’, it was taken on by social media as finally a proper measurement of batsmen in T20 cricket. Being a fan of statistics I tried to have a look at measurements in T20 cricket and whether the GillyFactor is the best measurement of batting.
*All averages include domestic records and are via Cricinfo
*The Average in the chart is for the top 15 players
*The top 15 players are the current top 15 T20I ICC ranked batsmen
*All records are as of 8/1/2014
A quick Googling found that Gilly was correct when he declared that the GillyFactor is not new. A thread from the cricket forum, Cricket Web from May 1, 2012 describes the theory as Average plus Strike-Rate, or APS (for those unsure, it should be noted that average = the average amount of runs a player scores for each dismissal, strike rate = how many runs a players scores per 100 balls). APS obviously sounds a lot more serious and less Channel 10-esque than GillyFactor (maybe would be better if it was HaddinFactor), so I will stick with that. Anyway, KiWiNiNjA himself writes that APS ‘isn’t a new thing’ (when was it a new thing?), and that he heard it from Simon Doull’s commentary (DoullFactor). Being the great man he is, KiWiNiNjA provides a list of high ranking batsmen using APS, but that was two years ago, so it seems irrelevant now. So I did it. No worries KiWiNiNjA.
The list (to your right) includes the top 15 batsmen in T20I ICC Rankings and a collection of other interesting players.
The RicFactor you see in the chart is the product of stats star Ric Finlay. RicFactor is the √(SR*AVG) or the square root of the product of strike rate and average. For example Alex Hales’s strike rate (140.4) and average (30.2) multiplied equals 4240.08. The square root of this is 65.1, Hales’s RicFactor. The benefit of RicFactor is the increased emphasis on the batting average. While strike rates are vital in T20, the APS downplays averages too much. Quick runs are important, but runs themselves are still needed more.
In analysis of the APS v RicFactor battle, there are some large discrepancies. One that stands out is the difference between Jacques Kallis and Shahid Afridi, two varying forces as all rounders throughout their careers. Kallis and Afridi have played the game of cricket in contrast for decades, and are sitting in contrast between APS and RicFactor. Kallis scores runs at an average very similar to the top 15 current players, averaging 32.26, yet scores slowly, only going at 111.5 per 100 balls. Afridi has a poor average – 19.71, but a terrific strike rate – 158.9. Afridi’s record is everything that is wrong with the APS. His strike rate alone almost carries to the top 15 average of 165.9, so his below-par average is almost irrelevant to his APS. In the RicFactor however, Afridi suffers for his average and his RicFactor of 54.93 is the worst on the list. Kallis on the other hand has the worst APS on the list. However, as he did in Test cricket, he scores at his own rate, but he scores. His reasonably strong average lead Kallis to a RicFactor of 59.99, which is certainly not awful compared to the top 15 average RicFactor of 65.85.
Some other notable observations from the list is the dominance of Chris Gayle. Gayle is simply the best T20 batsman of all time, combining the highest average of the list (43.9) and the third-highest strike rate (151.8). He is head and shoulders above the field in both APS and RicFactor, and would no doubt be ranked higher by the ICC if he played more often. Aaron Finch is strong in all areas and is only behind Gayle on RicFactor with a strong 73.56. Another outstanding player is Ben Cutting. Cutting is essentially a bowler who bats a bit, but his batting skills are perfectly suited to T20. He generally does bat lower in the order, at 7 or 8, meaning he is more likely to be not out (better average) and has a license to try and hit every ball over the fence (better strike rate). However, Cutting is really, really good at it. His strike rate of 158.9 is higher than anybody else on the list, and stands more than 25 runs higher than the top 15 average. As you can imagine, his APS is through the roof, thanks to that strike rate, but his RicFactor of 66.45 puts him above the average of the top 15 players in the world. As far as bowlers who bat a bit, Cutting his probably the best there is.
Through all this data it is important to realise that averages aren’t nearly as important in T20 as they are in regular first class cricket. A player who scores a lot of runs slowly is hindering the team, but a player who scores barely any runs quickly isn’t helping that much either. Hopefully commentators (looking at you Mark Howard) can stop frothing over a strike rate of 120, because 120 is no longer up to scratch. An average under 20 for a top order batsman is not worth much either. It’s plain to see that the RicFactor is the more reasonable way of looking at the effectiveness of a batsman, over the APS, but there is still a lot of work to be done in the statistical world of T20 cricket. As Anthony Leach aptly tweeted during the Big Bash, a good T20 measurement should take in to account dot balls. Unfortunately that is beyond me. Plus, we haven’t even discussed bowling yet.
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